Despite ongoing heavy maintenance at Norwegian North Sea facilities reducing European gas supply, mild and windy weather, strong French nuclear output, and steady LNG deliveries are keeping short-term markets well balanced and stable.

Longer-term contracts remain under pressure amid reports that OPEC+ may discuss increasing oil production this month, alongside expectations of rising LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) output from the US and Qatar. Unless the US LNG supply is disrupted or Russian gas imports fall sharply due to potential new US sanctions, the downtrend is likely to continue, with autumn weather becoming the key driver; as warm, windy conditions could accelerate the decline, however, lower European gas storage levels compared with 2023 and 2024 are expected to limit the downside.

There are several upcoming industry charges that will affect all non-domestic customers in the UK which all businesses need to prepare for. These charges are determined by UK energy policy and industry bodies, not by individual suppliers, to pay for the national grid and future power projects. The Nuclear RAB Levy is coming into effect on 1 November 2025. The Nuclear RAB Levy has been set up to finance new nuclear power projects (which were not fully costed/funded as proposed by the government), including Sizewell C, which will, in the long run (allegedly), reduce the overall cost of nuclear power to UK customers and give the UK a stable, low-carbon option.

This will affect all UK non-domestic (import) customers, regardless of your supplier. The quarter four, 2025 Nuclear RAB rate is much higher than industry reports forecasted. Early estimates were around £0.30/MWh (0.03p kWh), which would mean a few pounds per household per year. However, because the scheme’s start date was brought forward, and because of the financing of the project itself, the rate for November-December 2025 has been set at £3.455/MWh (0.3455p kWh) – this is now fixed for all suppliers. TNUoS (Transmission Network Use of System) charges are also increasing from 1 April 2026 – TNUoS charges fund all upgrades to the transmission network so electricity can move efficiently around the UK. Ofgem have announced that TNUoS charges are set to significantly increase next year. The exact value and full impact of the increased TNUoS charges are not yet known, but it is important to heed the advanced notice to help your business plan for these additional costs.